The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle

Business Cycle Features In The Iranian Economy

Seasonal Adjustment and the Business Cycle in Unemployment

Several recent studies show that seasonal variation and cyclical variation in unemployment are correlated. A common nding is that seasonality tends to diier across the business cycle stages of recessions and expansions. Since seasonal adjustment methods assume that the two sources of variation can somehow be separated, the present study examines the impact of seasonal adjustment on the analysis...

Bank Lending Behaviour over the Business Cycle in Iran

This paper studies bank loans over the business cycles in Iran to determine the role of Iranian banks in stabilizing credit. By estimating the long-run relations using dynamic OLS and fully modified OLS estimators, the findings show that real bank lending is positively related to real GDP in the long-run providing evidences of the pro-cyclicality of bank lending in Iran. Hence, Iranian banking ...

The Business Cycle E®ects of Seasonal Shocks¤

Conventional wisdom emphasizes supply and demand shocks as the major sources of the business cycle. Yet the most visible, most synchronized, and most frequently encountered supply and demand shocks take place at the seasons. The central question to be addressed in this paper is to what extent impulses at the seasonal frequency are responsible for business cycles? Despite strong empirical eviden...

Analysis of the Relationship between the Business Cycle and Inflation Gap in Time-Frequency Domain

Controlling the business cycle and minimizing the inflation gap are considered as two major goals for monetary policy. Hence, the policymaker will be able to make more decisive decisions with an awareness of the dynamic relationship and causal relationship between these two variables. Accordingly, the present study uses a discrete and continuous wavelet transform to provide a new understanding ...